Today we’re launching an interactive
that calculates every team’s chances of advancing past the group stage
and eventually winning the tournament. The forecasts are based on the
Soccer Power Index (SPI), an algorithm I developed in conjunction with
ESPN in 2010. SPI has Brazil as the heavy favorite, with a 45 percent
chance of winning the World Cup, well ahead of Argentina (13 percent),
Germany (11 percent) and Spain (8 percent).
True, Brazil is the betting favorite to win the World Cup — but perhaps not by as wide a margin as it should be. The team’s price at the betting market Betfair as of early Sunday evening implied that it has about a 23 percent chance of winning the World Cup2 — only a little better than Argentina (19 percent), Germany (13 percent) and Spain (13 percent).